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The hedge fund shouted, "Buy gold and sell stocks" would be a once-in-a-century deal._高鹰生殖中心

来源: 新华社
06:00:01

nataliacruzeThe hedge fund shouted, "Buy gold and sell stocks" would be a once-in-a-century deal.

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    The U.S. stock market has rebounded sharply this year, but in the view of the hedge fund, which has won the market for many years, this is just an episode in the bear market. Buying gold and selling stocks is now a "once-in-a-century deal".

    The hedge fund, Crescat Capital, manages about $50 million in assets. Bloomberg quoted Tavi Costa, its global macro analyst, as saying that the current consensus is that the U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2020 or 2021, but a large number of macro indicators they monitor show that the U.S. recession will come sooner than that.

The hedge fund, Crescat Capital, manages about 50 million in assets. Bloomberg quoted Tavi Costa, its global macro analyst, as saying that the current consensus is that the U. S. economy will fall into recession in 2020 or 2021, but a large number of macro indicators they monitor show that the U. S. recession will come sooner than that.

    According to Crescat Capital, since its establishment in 2006, the annual yield has been close to 12%, beating the S&P 500 index by 8%. More noteworthy is that last year, when the hedge fund industry in the United States was howling, its global macro strategy fund made 41% of the year's negative returns.

    The MSCI global index has risen more than 10% this year, but Costa sees it as a bear market rebound. He believes that all assets have risen since the beginning of the year, while the VIX of the panic index has dropped significantly, which is just a false impression before the trend reversal, so Crescat Capital's main strategy now is to do more RMB-denominated gold and short global stock markets.

    Although the U.S. stock market has rebounded sharply this year and the S&P 500 index has risen by about 13% in the year, the outlook of the U.S. business community on the economic outlook has not changed.

    At the end of last month, a survey by the National Association for Business Economics showed that three quarters of 281 respondents believed that the U.S. recession would occur by the end of 2021, while 42% of respondents pointed out that the recession would come by the end of next year.

    As pessimistic as Tavi Costa is, 10% of economists believe the U.S. economy will fall into recession this year. Only 11% believed that the crisis would come after 2021.

    In this context, gold, as a hedge asset, has also seen a rebound this year, rising by more than 4% from the beginning of the year to the end of February, breaking through the $1,300/ounce barrier at one time after breaking through 1340. It is noteworthy, however, that since February 20, gold prices have fallen by about 3%, narrowing the year's rise to 1%.

    In Goldman Sachs's view, however, the Fed's hint that the suspension of interest rate hikes and improved growth in emerging market economies will weaken the dollar and support gold prices in the future.

    * This article is from Wall Street (Wechat ID: Wallstreetcn). Open the Wall Street Gold Card Members, immediately receive the global market opportunities in 2019.

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